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Modeliranje izvora i transporta zagađenja na jugoistočnu obalu Jadrana (Hrvatska)

机译:模拟污染源并运往亚得里亚海东南海岸(克罗地亚)

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摘要

In this study we analysed meteorological and oceanographic conditions that lead to the waste deposition along the southeast Croatian coast during the second half of November 2010. We used available in situ measurements, atmospheric products (reanalysis, remote sensing) as well as atmosphere and ocean numerical models. The measured meteorological data reveal that an intensive rainfall event occurred from 7 till 10 November 2010, over the parts of Montenegro and Albania. It was followed by a substantial increase of the river water levels indicating a possibility of flash floods, capable of splashing the waste material into a river and after to the Adriatic Sea (or to the sea directly). The currents that could bring this waste to Croatian coast are likely intensified by the strong wind from southeast direction. In order to test these two hypotheses we set a number of numerical drifter experiments with trajectories initiated over southeast Adriatic during the intensive rainfall events following their path in space and time. The numerical drifter trajectory experiments that resulted with drifters reaching the right position (southeastern Adriatic coast) at exact time the waste was observed were initiated on 00:00 and 12:00 UTC of 10 November 2010 during the mentioned high precipitation event.
机译:在这项研究中,我们分析了导致2010年11月下半月克罗地亚东南沿海废物堆积的气象和海洋条件。我们使用了现场测量,大气产物(再分析,遥感)以及大气和海洋数值楷模。实测的气象数据显示,从2010年11月7日至10日,在黑山和阿尔巴尼亚部分地区发生了一次强降雨事件。其次是河流水位的大量增加,表明可能发生山洪暴发,能够将废物溅入河流,然后流向亚得里亚海(或直接流向大海)。来自东南方向的强风加剧了可能将这些废物带入克罗地亚海岸的水流。为了检验这两个假设,我们设置了一些数值漂移实验,其轨迹沿着亚得里亚海东南部在强烈的降雨事件中沿其时空路径变化时在其上启动。在上述高降水事件期间,于2010年11月10日世界标准时间00:00和12:00,在观察到废物的确切时间使漂流者到达正确位置(东南亚得里亚海海岸)的漂流者轨迹实验得以进行。

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